Fleet Overview
Reversion · Live (HL)
--Open Positions
0 openTrading Capital
Strategy PnL
Recent Trades
Equity Curve
Strategy Breakdown
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Current Position
Recent Trades
Regime-Conditional Reversion — the one proven edge
LIVE EDGEShort an overbought extension (zscore ≥ 1.5) only when price is below its 50-day average — i.e. fade the bounce in a confirmed downtrend, never fight an uptrend. Exit on mean-reversion or an 8–10% stop.
Validated at net +2.4 to +4.4% per trade, both-halves out-of-sample positive, and 6 of 6 calendar years positive. The 50-day filter is the difference between a sleeve and ruin: the naive fade-overbought version is catastrophic.
Status: now executing a tiny validation cell live on Hyperliquid (see the Reversion · Live (HL) card on the Trading tab). Also forward-shadowing as gold (PAXG) and equity (Bybit stock-perp) reversion proxies.
Retired — no mechanical edge
PAPER ONLYThe momentum / trend-chasing strategies were diagnosed signal-bound: their entries were directionally wrong. About 79% stop out and keep going against us, and the bot's own conviction score turned out to be anti-predictive (higher conviction, worse outcome). These are kept paper-only and are not traded live.